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此情或可待:“离婚冷静期”规定对离婚登记数量趋势的影响

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英文标题: A Wait Perhaps Worthwhile:The Influence of a “Cooling-off” Period on Trends in Divorce Registration
摘要:

本文关注“离婚冷静期”规定对离婚登记数量趋势的影响,间接探讨了冲动等不可观测主观因素在我国离婚决策中的角色。基于民政部2018—2021年省—季度统计数据,辅以国家统计局、裁判文书网、百度指数等数据,本研究通过事件研究和双重差分等政策评估方法交叉验证发现,“冷静期”使得各省各季度离婚登记数量平均减少1.03~1.32万对,较前三年降低了33%~42%。在以往复婚较普遍、青年离婚占比较大、对“冷静期”等离婚相关信息搜索较多的地区降幅更大,揭示了部分潜在作用机制。

英文摘要:

This study examines the influence of a 30-day “cooling-off” period policy on trends in divorce registration,shedding light on the intervention on certain unmeasurable subjective factors-including impulsiveness-in divorce decisionmaking in China. The analysis employs province-quarter-level data of divorce registration from the Ministry of Civil Affairs in 2018-2021 and further incorporates data from the National Bureau of Statistics,China Judgements Online,and the Baidu Index. Based on the policy evaluation methods,such as the event-study and difference-in-differences,evidence consistently suggests a substantial influence of the policy,which reduces 10.3-13.2 thousand divorces per province per quarter on average,amounting to a decline of 33-42% compared to the previous three years. Moreover,the influence appears to be greater in provinces with more previously divorced couples restoring their marriages,more divorces between young couples,or more internet searches about the policy and divorce-related information,highlighting some potential mechanisms underlying the intervention.

作者: 董浩
作者单位: 北京大学光华管理学院社会研究中心
期刊: 社会学研究
年.期:页码 2023.1:
中图分类号:
文章编号:
关键词: 离婚冷静期;离婚趋势;社会政策评估
英文关键词:
项目基金:

本研究受国家自然科学基金“教育和城乡家庭背景的多维婚配模式及其影响研究:超长期趋势与新反事实分析框架”项目(编号72003006)资助。

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