Socio-economic Status, Behavioral Adaptation, and Expectation for Government Performance: An analysis of the differentiation of residents’ smog-related out-migration intention

经验观察和相关研究表明，环境污染是导致移民的因素之一。基于北京市电话调查数据，本研究发现：以雾霾为标志的空气污染问题频发，确实引发了居民担忧，部分居民也因此萌生了迁出意向，但居民雾霾迁出意向的分异却不能完全为环境因素所解释；雾霾迁出意向较少受到社会经济地位因素影响；适应雾霾的不同行为模式对雾霾迁出意向具有不同影响；对政府治霾的信心可以显著抑制雾霾迁出意向。基于对人的主体性和能动性以及环境风险变化的动态性关注，本研究进一步尝试发展关于环境移民研究的新视角——绩效期待理论。

Environmental pollution is one of the most significant factors inducing migration, according to empirical observations and previous studies. Drawing on phone survey data collected in Beijing, this study focuses on residents’ smog-related out-migration intention（SOI).The results of descriptive data analysis indicate that a considerable amount of residents in Beijing worry about the hazards of air pollution characterized by smog .Some residents, however, express their SOI in ways that cannot be fully explained by the environmental factor. The residents’ socio-economic status shows limited effects on SOI, while patterns of behavioral adaptation to smog contribute to SOI with two separate effects. Moreover, the residents’ SOI is inhibited significantly by their positive expectations towards government performance on smog prevention. This study constructs an “Expectation for Government Performance” approach, a new perspective on environmental migration.

洪大用；范叶超；李佩繁

本研究得到教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地项目“国际比较视野下的中国城乡居民环境意识研究”（13JJD840006）、北京郑杭生社会发展基金会·杭州国际城市学研究中心学子项目“环境社会学视角下的城市雾霾及其治理——以北京市雾霾治理为例”（14ZHFD02）的资助。

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