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英文标题: | Does the “Seven Year Itch” Exist? A Study of the Divorce Pattern and Its Change in China |
摘要: | 本文运用中国家庭动态跟踪调查(CFPS)2010年的初访数据研究中国夫妻的离婚模式及其变迁趋势,发现中国夫妻的离婚模式呈明显的“倒U型”曲线,且曲线峰值出现的时间逐步提前。家庭生命周期理论、自然演化论和总体异质性理论为“倒U型”的离婚模式提出了三种不同的理论解释,前两种理论没有得到数据的支持,总体异质性理论则较好地拟合了观测数据。总体分割模型的分析结果显示,有离婚经历的群体其离婚风险表现为线性递增,而大量不离婚夫妻群体的存在导致总体离婚模式呈先上升后下降的“倒U型”曲线。分期群的比较研究发现,随着时间的推移,夫妻最终会离婚的比例在不断增加,而且离婚者离婚的速率快速增长,婚姻的不稳定性逐步增强。 |
英文摘要: | Based on data from the 2010 China Family Panel Study (CFPS) baseline survey, this paper studies the divorce pattern in China and its change by Comparing four cohorts.We find a “reverse-U” pattern in the divorce risk of Chinese couples and the peak is arriving earlier in the marriage.The “reverse-U” divorce pattern can be explained by family life cycle theory, natural evolvement theory, and population heterogeneity theory.Family life cycle theory and natural evolvement theory are not supported by the data, while population heterogeneity theory fits the data well.Split-population model shows that the divorce risk for divorced couple increases lineally with the duration of marriage.However, the curve goes down in the end since the majority of the population does not divorce.By comparing the four cohorts, we find that the proportion of divorced couples has been increasing over the time and the slope of the risk function for divorced couple has been increasing at a high speed. |
作者: | 许琪;邱泽奇;李建新; |
作者单位: | 南京大学社会学院;北京大学社会学系;北京大学社会学系; |
期刊: | 社会学研究 |
年.期:页码 | 2015.5:216-241 |
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关键词: | 离婚模式;总体分割模型;自然演化论;总体异质性;家庭生命周期; |
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