Multi-channel Strong Intervention, Frames and Protest Outcome: Fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis of 40 demolition cases in China

本文结合中国政治的特点提出理解抗争成功的探索性分析框架，指出政治机会与框架对抗争结果具有较强的解释力，而“客观的”政治机会不仅包括中央干预，还包括央媒支持性报道和有利的制度框架。文章使用模糊集定性比较分析方法对2003-2012年40个具有社会影响力的拆迁抗争案例进行系统的比较。结果表明，中央干预与央媒支持性报道并存的“多渠道强干预”是抗争成功的充分条件，而“多渠道强干预”则取决于有利的制度环境和抗争者的多重混合框架化策略。此外，本文通过对案例的分析展示了成功抗争中的动力机制。本研究不仅丰富了抗争结果研究，还拓展了政治机会结构理论和框架化研究。

Based on the characteristics of China’s political system, this study proposes an exploratory analytical framework to explain the success of protests.It contends that frames and “objective” political opportunities, which include not only direct intervention from the central government but also supportive media coverage by state-sponsored national media and favorable institutional framework, can better explain successful protests.This study systematically compares 40 demolition cases which occurred in the period of 2003-2012, using the method of fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis.The findings show that multi-channel strong intervention—the co-presence of direct central intervention and supportive coverage by state-sponsored media is a sufficient path to successful protests, whilst the occurrence of multi-channel strong intervention depends on a favorable institutional environment and the deployment of multiple frames.In addition, this study sheds light on the dynamics of successful protests by scrutinizing the cases.In all, this research not only enriches the literature on protest outcome, but also extends the theories of political opportunities and framing.

黄荣贵；郑雯；桂勇；

受国家社科基金项目(12CSH043)和上海社科规划课题(2013BSH001)的支持

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