Developmentalist Government and Urban Hukou Threshold: Rethinking hukou system reform

社会期盼的户籍制度改革目标是自由落户,但改革的实际进程却滞后甚至背离公众预期。本文探讨的中心问题是对户籍制度改革障碍的理解。从发展主义政府的视角检视各地普遍设置落户门槛的体制逻辑,通过投影寻踪模型、因子分析和聚类分析的方法对我国46个样本城市的现行落户条件及其关联因素进行分析,构建落户门槛指数评价不同城市落户门槛的高低,并在此基础上探讨落户门槛的高度与哪些影响因子显著相关,以及不同类别的城市落户门槛影响因子的作用效应。分析结果揭示,在强调增长的经济社会生态下,落户门槛在样本城市存在“质”的共性但有“度”的差别,而落户门槛高度在很大程度上可以被城市财政经济总量、消费水平、城建物化度、对外依赖度和经济结构等公因子的作用强度和结构属性解释。

After years of transition from the central planning system to the marketoriented one，the actual progress of hukou system reform has not met the expectations of the public，which is removing every restriction on accessing a formal registration in the city. The purpose of this study is to seek for a better understanding of the barrier of hukou system reform. Taking the perspective of developmentalist government，the paper tries to explain the rationale for the existence of hukou barrier. Applying the projection pursuit model as well as the techniques of factor analysis and cluster analysis to analyze the data of 46 cities，our empirical findings show that the hukou barrier at the city level can be largely explained by many social and economic factors including economic output，the level of consumption，the provision ability of urban infrastructure，the degree of outside dependence，and economic structure.

吴开亚； 张力

教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“中国户籍制度改革研究”(07JZD0022)的部分成果；上海市哲学社会科学规划项目(2009BCK001)；复旦大学金穗项目(EYH3548034)的支持

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