Herders' Social Vulnerability to Climate Change: A case of desert grassland in Inner Mongolia

在全球变暖的影响下,干旱区本身易变的气候条件呈现暖干趋势和更高的不可预测性。面对变化的自然条件,牧民适应能力的强弱取决于当地的社会经济制度是否有利于牧民采取有效的应对和适应策略。本文选择内蒙古锡林郭勒盟荒漠草原的一个嘎查为例,基于近40年的气象数据以及两次田野调查数据,从社会脆弱性的两个过程——风险暴露和应对能力——出发,分析案例地牧民应对自然灾害能力的脆弱性。研究表明,在全球气候变暖的影响下,案例地近40年有暖干趋势,协同灾害增多;而草场划分到户和市场机制的引入不仅增加了牧民的风险暴露程度,而且使牧民原有低成本的灾害应对策略失效,牧民不得不依赖高成本的贮备和移动策略。此外,中央和地方政府实施的一系列草场保护项目又给牧民的灾害应对施加了诸多限制,由此导致牧民应对气候变化的能力减弱,脆弱性增加。

Under the impact of climate change，variable climate conditions of dryland have been characterized by drier-warmer trend and higher unpredictability． Confronted with these changes，herders' adaptation capacity depends on if local social economic institutions could facilitate herders to take effective adaptation strategies． Taking a village in desert grassland of Inner Mongolia as an example，based on meteorologic data and field study，this paper analyzes herders' social vulnerability to natural disasters from two aspects: risk exposure and coping capacity． It shows a drier-warmer trend and increasing synergetic disasters during the recent forty years． However， distributing grassland to individual households and introducing marketization have not only increased herders' risk exposure，but also changed herders' low-cost coping strategies to high-cost storage and moving strategies． Moreover，a series of projects to protect grassland initiated by both central and local governments have exerted further limitations on herders' coping capacity，which result in herders' increasing vulnerability．

张倩

中国社会科学院重大项目“气候变化下中国北方草原牧区的环境保护与社会经济发展”(YZDA2010-19)的阶段性成果;福特基金项目 “Case-based Research on Climate Disaster and Disaster Management under Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies in Inner Mongolia”的联合资助

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