The Myth of Welfare Dependency in China: An empirical study on China's Urban Minimum Living-hood Guarantee Scheme

本文采用“中国城市低保制度绩效评估”项目的实地调查数据,采用定量与定性研究探究"福利依赖"在当今中国是否存在。描述性统计结果显示,低保户具有较强的求职意愿。在回归模型构建过程中,作者通过对有健全劳动能力和有部分劳动能力人群的对比分析,发现低保受助者的工作决策主要受到劳动能力、健康状况、性别、年龄等因素的影响。定性研究结果显示,低保金目前起到了重要的救助作用,被访者也显示出了较强的就业与改善生活的意愿。基于定量与定性研究结果,本文认为目前城市低保制度尚不存在“福利依赖”效应。但在前瞻性视角下,不能忽视福利依赖未来出现的可能性,据此作者提出完善制度的相应政策建议。

Based on data from “An Evaluation Project on Urban Minimum Livinghood Guarantee ( MLG) in China”，this paper adopts a comprehensive method of both quantitative and qualitative studies to explore welfare dependency in China． The descriptive analysis shows that the beneficiaries are generally satisfied with the MLG scheme，and they are willing to work． Through Binary-Probit regression analysis，this study finds that the beneficiaries' working willingness and decisions are mainly affected by factors such as working capability，health conditions，gender and age． Particularly， respondents' dependency levels are highly related with their working capability． Qualitative study shows that MLG plays a primary role in securing recipients' lives， and respondents do have a strong sense of seeking jobs and improving their lives． Given the empirical findings，the authors conclude that there is no significant welfare dependency effect caused by the current urban MLG scheme． However，from a forward- looking perspective，the possibility of welfare dependency could by no means be neglected．

韩克庆 郭瑜

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