The Influencing Factors of Divorce Risk: A comprehensive model

国外主流文献以双方年龄、教育、宗教和种族等人口特征的相对差异来测量夫妻的异质性,本研究认为这难以反映两性异质的真正内涵,继而改用双方在观念、性格、旨趣、生活习惯、消费意向/习惯、子女教育和处理亲属关系等方面协调适应的同质性作为检验离婚风险的异质假说,同时将婚姻互动论、离婚成本分析、家庭压力论、文化规范论和替代选择假说的相关变量根据中国国情加以改进后纳入一个综合分析模型,以上海、兰州城乡4区域的概率抽样调查资料来检视离婚风险的影响机制。研究结果表明,该异质性指标更具解释力,异质假说的内涵得到了拓展,而且综合分析框架在排除其他因素影响后也验证了其他相关理论。

Instead of using spouses' age，education，religion and ethnicity as heterogeneity predictors——although these predictors are popular in the Western literature， they couldn't reflect the true contents of heterogeneity between Chinese husbands and wives—— spouses' attitudes，personality，interests，life style，consumption habits， children education，and the management of kinship relations are used in this paper to test the heterogamy hypothesis of predicting divorce risk． In addition，the predicting variables from several theories such as marital interaction，the cost analysis of divorce， family stress，norm regulation and alternative selection are integrated into a comprehensive model after having these variables adapted to the Chinese context． Using data from a sampling survey collected in Shanghai and Lanzhou，this study not only shows that the improved predictors have stronger explanation power，and expand the contents of heterogamy hypothesis，but also other relevant theories are more rigorously tested with net effects in the comprehensive model．

徐安琪

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