Does Using Contacts Matter: A multi-model replication and extension in non-free market economies

在以往的研究中,对“找关系”本身是否有利求职的分析往往因忽视内生性问题而不具因果推断力,且关注的多为欧美自由市场经济。本文运用“一阶差分”和“内生干预效应”模型,对合作者14年前发表的前东德职业声望研究进行复制和拓展,并对2002年中国城镇居民的家庭收入调查数据进行分析。研究表明,在代表计划经济和转型期经济的前东德与当代中国,“找关系”本身与求职结果之间没有因果关系。在前东德研究中,求职方式中的自选择导致估计量上偏,而中国研究中自选择问题导致估计量下偏。针对这一差异,本文给出了“正向选择”和“逆向选择”的诠释:前东德工人中能力强者倾向于使用社会关系,而在转型期的中国城镇,能力弱者倾向于“找关系”以弥补自身劣势。

Previous studies on the direct effects of using contacts on job outcomes, to a large extent, have ignored the potential endogeneity problem impairing causal inferences. In addition, these studies merely focus on countries under full market economy. This paper first conducts a replication and extension on Volker and Flap's study (1999) on status attainment in former East Germany, using the first difference method to deal with self-selection problem. Chinese data are then analyzed with the same model. Findings based on the two countries suggest that there is no evidence supporting the direct role of using contacts. The German study reveals that the effects of using contacts are overestimated without taking account into self-selection, while the Chinese study reports downwardly biased estimates. Positive selection versus negative selection during the process of selecting job search methods is therefore proposed to interpret the findings.

陈云松 比蒂·沃克尔 亨克·弗莱普；

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