Estimation on the Target Family of the 2-Child Policy for Only-Child Parents and the Relevant Problems in China

经过30多年的独生子女政策,中国积累了大量的独生子女。本文以“单独二孩”计划生育新政目标人群为研究对象,以2005年全国1%人口抽样调查原始抽样数据为基础,结合1990、2000以及2010年全国人口普查数据,通过微观人口仿真技术,建立2010年原始仿真数据库,对目前中国东、中、西部地区农业和非农业“单独”育龄妇女和一孩“单独”育龄妇女总量、结构进行估计。研究结果表明:全国一孩“单独”育龄妇女有2051万人左右,其中农业户口这类“单独”育龄妇女有925万左右,非农业户口不到1120万,符合新政策可能生育的育龄妇女在1411万左右。“单独二孩”可能生育的目标人群东部地区最多,约688万人,其中非农业一孩"单独"育龄妇女495万,中部地区“单独二孩”目标人群不到395万人,西部地区约328万人。最后,本文针对“单独二孩”政策面临的主要问题提出相应的政策建议。

After more than 30 years of the only-child policy, China has a great amount of only-child families. Using the 1% sample data of population survey in 2005 and the census data of 1990, 2000 and 2010, we take the target population of the new family planning policy as research goal, and simulate the population structure of 2010 and set up a simulating data base for 2010 by computer. From the simulating data base, we estimate the population size and structure of the fertility women of the 2-child policy for only-child parents by rural and non-rural, and east, middle and west regions. We find that about 14 million families will be covered by the new 2-child policy for only-child parents. The mainly target families concentrate in the east part of China: the number of families is about 7 million, and there are about 5.3 million non-rural families among these families. There are 4 million and 3. 2 million target families in the middle and the west respectively. The authors also analyzed the possible problems posed by the new policy and proposed some policy suggestions.

张丽萍 王广州

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