The Changing Trend of Educational Inequality in China (1940-2010): Reexamining the urban-rural gap on educational opportunity

本文基于2006、2008和2011年全国抽样调查数据,采用Mare升学模型,系统考察1940-2010年各教育阶段城乡教育机会不平等的变化趋势。通过5个出生年龄组比较分析,发现小学教育的城乡机会不平等在下降,初中教育的城乡机会不平等没有变化,而高中及其他高级中等教育的城乡机会不平等持续上升,大学阶段的城乡机会不平等略有上升。本文的主要结论是:中等教育的城乡不平等是教育分层的关键所在,初中升入高级中等教育阶段的城乡机会不平等持续扩大,而这是导致农村子弟上大学相对机会下降的源头。与此同时,本文还对工业化理论假设、再生产理论假设和文凭主义假设进行了验证,数据分析结果支持再生产理论假设。 

Abstract; Based on national survey data of 2006, 2008 and 2011, this paper uses the educational transition model developed by Mare to examine the trend in opportunity inequality between urban and rural children at all educational levels during 1940 - 2010. Comparison of different birth cohorts shows that the inequality at primary education is reducing but the inequality of accessing to junior middle education remains stable. At the same time, the inequality of accessing senior middle education has been increasing significantly and the inequality of accessing higher education has a modest rise. The author argues that the key point of educational stratification in China is at the selection of senior middle education. The rising gap between people from urban and rural families in higher education is because many rural children drop out of school at the middle education stage. In addition, the paper tests the industrialization thesis, the reproduction theory and the credentialism hypothesis. The results of data analysis strongly support the reproduction theory.

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