本文考察了地方规划权中规划自主性之于绩效改进的宏观因果效应。鉴于既有研究对规划有效性的认知缺乏理据实证，本研究以2006—2015年两期规划数据为基础，运用双重差分与引入时间因素的多时段QCA和TSQCA方法，系统检验了自主增设公共服务类规划指标的实际效果。研究发现，自主设定规划指标能够对中长期绩效改进产生积极作用，且越到规划后期，指标的约束力越强；虽然从短期看规划不必然带来绩效改进，但如果缺乏长期规划，绩效改进将“事倍功半”。本文对规划权进行了初步的建构与评估，对国家治理的规划逻辑进行了讨论。

This paper examines the macro-causal effects of planning autonomy in local planning rights on performance improvement. In view of the lack of evidence on the effectiveness of planning,this study systematically examines the effectiveness of autonomy in setting planning indicators for public services based on planning data for the two periods from 2006 to 2015,using DID, multiple QCAs across different time periods and TSQCA methods. It is found that the autonomous setting of planning indicators can have a positive effect on medium-term and long-term performance improvement, and the later the planning, the stronger the binding effect of the indicators; at the same time,it is necessary to recognize that,in the short term,planning does not necessarily lead to performance improvement; but in the long term, without planning, the performance improvement may "get half the result with twice the effort". This paper provides a preliminary construction and assessment of the planning rights,and discusses the logic of planning in national governance.

王红帅

本文系中国博士后科学基金会第72批面上资助“中长期规划的有效性：制度分析与实证策略”（2022M721787）的阶段性成果。

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