Reversal of the Employment-Fertility Relationship and the Rise of Dual-Earner Family Policy: Implications for China’s Family Policy in the Two-Child Era

任何社会政策的制定都建立在社会经济变量间的某种因果关系之上。本文使用工具变量对22个经合组织（OECD）国家的面板数据（1960-2010年）进行了因果识别，发现对于西方国家以提高生育率为目标的家庭政策而言，妇女劳动参与率与总和生育率之间的“反J型”关系是重要的影响因素。近年来，这对变量由负相关向正相关转变，使得促进女性就业的双薪型家庭政策取代鼓励妇女居家看护的通用型家庭政策成为主流。因此，采取何种家庭政策来提高生育率取决于妇女劳动参与率与总和生育率之间的关系，这是我国当前“二孩”时代制定家庭政策时应予借鉴的经验。

Social policy making is based on causal relationship between socio-economic variables. Drawing on time-series-cross-section analysis of 22 OECD countries (1960-2010), this article demonstrates that family policy in industrialized nations is shaped by relationship between female labor force participation and the total fertility rate. This relationship has changed from being negative to positive since the 1980s, thereby exhibiting an inverted-J shaped association in the post-WWII years. This reversal of employment-fertility relationship leads to the recent expansion of employment-oriented family policy. The lesson is that the Chinese family policy in the two-child era should consider the employment-fertility relationship.

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