The Downward Movement：Changes of Migrant Workers’Socio-economic Status during 2006-2015

据国家统计局数据显示，农民工规模增长面临拐点，教育结构有较大改善，绝对收入也还在持续增长。但农民工在现实生活中仍然属于城市中的边缘群体。本文使用2006-2015年五轮中国社会科学院社会综合调查数据，结合年龄—时期—队列分析方法，发现结构改善没有真正提高他们的社会经济地位，农民工的相对收入水平和社会地位自评反而在下降，呈现“逆成长”态势。因此，本文认为即便是在劳动力供给下降的情况下，依靠市场因素自发调节和纠正农民工受歧视的地位仍难以实现，应该对社会政策的影响加以深刻反思。

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that the labor market of China is facing labor supply inflexion, especially in terms of the migrant workers. The migrant workers constitute a marginalized group in urban China, although their education level has improved substantially and their absolute income continues to increase. By using the age-period-cohort models, this article analyzes the changes in socio-economic status and subjective social status of migrant workers from 2006 to 2015. This research finds that the supply inflexion and education structure improvement do not increase the relative income or subjective social status of the migrant workers, who seem to be going through a “downward movement”. Therefore, this paper argues that it is difficult to improve the socio-economic status of migrant workers by relying solely on the spontaneous power of the market. The government should reflect on the design and implementation of relevant social policies.

田丰

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