The Dual Track Intergenerational Reproduction of State and Market Elites in China: 1978-2010

本文试图分析自改革开放以来，父辈的优势地位影响子代获得特定精英身份的程度和方式，以及这一模式是否在1978-1992年、1993-2002年、2003-2010年这三个历史时期发生了变化。通过对2011年“中国社会综合调查”（CSS2011）资料的分析，本研究发现虽然父辈的优势地位对子代的精英地位获得有着显著正效应，但体制精英和市场精英的代际流动仍然遵循着两条相互隔离的轨迹，只是在2003年之后体制精英的子女成为市场精英的几率比1993-2002年有所上升。对可能造成这种代际再生产模式的原因分析表明，虽然精英地位获得的影响因素多元化给社会流动提供了一定的开放性，但未来代际再生产的趋势很可能会强化并且由体制精英占据主导。这种代际流动的格局及趋势在更宏观的层面上反映了中国自市场转型以来政治经济生态的变迁。

This article aims to explore during China’s market transformation, how parents-advantaged occupations have been influencing the hazard rate of their children’s status attainment in certain elite positions, and whether these patterns show varieties during three different historical periods of 1978-1992, 1993-2002, and 2003-2010. Based on merged data from CSS2011, by using event history analysis, we find that although parent’s advantaged position has a persistent effect on children’s status attainment, its function in general does not break the “dual trajectory reproduction model”, which means that state elite and market elite tend to reproduce itself without revolving access. It is only after 2003 individuals whose parents are state elites are more likely to become market elites. We try to explain these findings, and reveal that the mechanisms underpinning this ongoing structural reproduction have been constantly changing at different historical periods, especially for the increasingly diversified market elites. These changing mechanisms reflect the macro transformation of China’s sociopolitical and economic environment in the past thirty years.

吕鹏、范晓光

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