The Risk of Low Fertility Trap in China Based on the Observation of Fertility Changes against the Background of Family Policies in Europe

本文以家庭政策背景下的欧洲各国生育率变化为研究视角，利用经合组织（OECD）和欧盟的数据库构建了家庭政策指数，并以此为基础比较分析了欧洲17个国家的家庭政策与生育率之间的关系。从欧洲一些国家深陷低生育率陷阱的前车之鉴和中国的现实判断，中国已进入了低生育率陷阱的高度风险期。要实现人口的长期均衡发展，生育率必须回升到更替水平。欧洲一些国家通过家庭政策激励生育率回升取得了成功，其经验值得中国借鉴。

Based on the family policy index, this paper uses the OECD and EU database for a comparative analysis of the relationship between family policy and fertility among 17 European countries.Judging from the experiences of the low fertility trap in some European countries and China

Based on the family policy index, this paper uses the OECD and EU database for a comparative analysis of the relationship between family policy and fertility among 17 European countries.Judging from the experiences of the low fertility trap in some European countries and China’s reality today, China is faced with a high risk of low fertility trap.To achieve a long-term balanced population development in China, the fertility rate must rise to the replacement level.China can learn from the successful experience of European countries who have increased fertility rate by promoting encouraging family policies.

吴帆

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