Inter-county Public Welfare Resource Allocation for Elderly: With an analysis of effects of spatial and institutional structures

本文综合考虑了多维因素对中国公共福利资源配置的作用，构建了空间计量模型，利用中国2010人口普查和统计年鉴的县级数据，实证分析得出以下结论：1家庭、经济、社会等制度性结构因素对县级社会福利院床位资源配置有显著影响。2空间结构因素对社会福利院床位配置也具有显著影响，县级社会福利院床位配置在整体空间上有显著正相关，若不考虑空间结构因素，制度结构对社会福利院床位配置的影响作用的分析会出现有偏性。3邻近县之间的社会福利院床位配置也存在相互影响，大多数县与邻近县之间存在空间溢出关系。由此，本文提出“空间—制度”的二重结构论，以弥补制度决定论对公共福利资源配置分析的不足，并揭示家庭福利因素对公共福利的影响。

This paper constructs spatial econometric models to analyze the effects of multiple factors on public welfare resource allocation in China. Using the county data of the “Chinas Census of 2010” and the “China Statistical Yearbook of 2010”, this empirical study has come to the following findings: (1) The institutional structure, such as family, economic, and social factors, has significant impact on the supply of beds in county social welfare institutes. (2) The spatial structure also has significant impact on public welfare resource allocation. There is significant spatial correlation in the supply of beds in county social welfare institutes. There will be bias in the analysis of the impact of the institutional structure if the spatial factor is neglected. (3)The supply of beds in county social welfare institutes has significant influence on that in the countys neighbors. Most of the counties have spatial spillover effects on their neighbors. Based on these findings, this paper proposes the dual structure of spatialinstitutional theory, which will remedy the weaknesses of the institutional determinism analysis to public welfare resource allocation, and also reveal the importance of family welfare to the public welfare.

马玉娜 顾佳峰

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