Analysis of Timing and Risk Factors of Sexual Debut among Chinese Unmarried Youth: A social cost perspective

由于缺乏全国代表性数据,迄今我们对中国青年首次性行为这一重要生命历程事件仍然缺乏了解。2009年第一次全国青年生殖健康调查捕捉了全国超过22000名未婚青年性与生殖健康的相关信息,本文使用这一数据,用乘积一极限法来估计性别视角下的中国青年在城乡与区域层面上首次性行为发生年龄,同时采用COX回归模型(考虑设计效应[DEEF])来探究社会代价和性知识获取层级变量作用于中国青年首次性行为发生风险的差异。结果显示,中国青年首次性行为发生年龄有显著的性别、城乡和区域差异,并且社会代价层级的变量对于青年首次性行为发生风险的影响非常明显,这包括性别、城乡、区域与家庭结构；而性知识获取层级的变量除个人受教育程度外对其影响则不甚明显。研究结果提示,在设计防范青年风险性行为发生的干预政策时,应注重社会代价理论的视角,同时关注那些性与生殖健康知识最少的风险群体并考虑首次性行为发生年龄的性别差异。

Based on the data from the National Youth Reproductive Health Survey in 2009, which examines the sexual behavior of over 22,000 unmarried youth aged 15 - 24 from mainland China, we use Kaplan-Meier method to estimate the gender-specific survival distribution of sexual debut across urban/rural status and regions. We also use Cox regression models to estimate the risk difference of the timing of sexual debut among Chinese youth in terms of the variables affecting youth's social cost and sex knowledge acquisition. The study shows that there are gender, urban/rural, and regional differences in the timing of sexual debut and the age-related prevalence of sexual experience. The results indicate that social cost variables including gender, community setting, and family structure, are significantly associated with the timing of sexual debut among Chinese youth; while only educational attainment of the variables affecting youth's sex knowledge acquisition is significantly associated with the timing of sexual debut. The policy implication of this study is that strategies to prevent risky sexual behaviors among Chinese youth need to consider gender differences in the timing of sexual debut from the perspective of the theory of social cost and need to- target at-risk groups, who have the least amount of knowledge about their sexual and reproductive health.

郭未 郑晓瑛 吴正

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