The Impact of Children on Divorce Risk

既有的研究运用不同的数据分别涉及了子女数量、年龄以及性别对婚姻稳定性的影响。本文运用一个数据,分析了是否婚前生育、子女数量、年龄和性别对离婚风险的影响,并考察了城乡之间的差异性。本研究发现,婚前生育不利于婚姻的稳定,生育子女数量多对婚姻稳定有利但边际效应递减,子女的年龄小对婚姻稳定有保护作用,有男孩的夫妇离婚的风险更低。本研究还发现,子女因素对离婚风险的影响在城乡之间有显著的不同:农村地区子女对婚姻的保护作用比城市更强,有男孩的夫妇婚姻更稳定。

Based on the data of the first wave of Chinese Family Panel Study in 2010, this paper examines the relationship between divorce risk and four children-related variables in China, which arc premarital childbearing, the number of children, children's age and gender. We find that all the four variables have significant effects on divorce risk: (1) couples who have premarital children are more likely to divorce; (2) the more children, the more stable the marriage is, but the marginal effect declines with the increase of the number of children; (3) younger children can reduce the risk of divorce more than older ones and (4) couples having boys are less likely to divorce. The findings from this research are consistent with studies conducted in other countries and suggest that children play an important role in stabilizing marriage and resolving contradictions in marriage. The authors also find that the positive effect of children on marital stability and the effect of children's gender are stronger in rural areas, which is probably due to the differences of modernization and cultural values between rural and urban areas. AH these findings imply that the change of marriage values and the decline of fertility rate are two important factors contributing to the increase of divorce rates in recent years.

许琪 于健宁 邱泽奇

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