Social Transition and Changes in the Determinants of Marriage Formation: A quantitative study of Chinese urbanites

通过分析2003与2008年中国综合社会调查数据,本文考察了我国城镇居民初婚影响因素近几十年来的变化。通过世代比较,本文发现,随着我国消费模式的变化,男性经济条件对初婚的影响作用逐渐增加。此外,国企改革使得体制内男性与女性职工在婚姻市场的优势逐渐下降。通过将个人层面信息与市级住房价格数据的匹配,本研究进一步发现房价的上升对我国城镇男女进入婚姻的影响通过教育这一中介机制而产生作用,个人教育对初婚的影响随着不同地区间房价的差异而显现出不同的效应。在房价较高的地区,较高的教育会增加进入婚姻的概率,而在房价较低的地区,教育主要起到推迟进入婚姻的作用。总的来说,本文的结果表明了初婚影响因素受到社会情境的影响。

Using data from the 2003 and 2008 Chinese General Social Surveys, we examine the changes of demographic and institutional determinants of individual marriage in urban China spanning 60 years. We observed a growth in the importance of economic prospect during the period of rapid economic development. In addition, the positive effect of working in the state-owned sector on marriage formation has declined, reflecting the increasing marketization in China during recent decades. Combining the surveys with city-level annual measures of housing prices, we further find that the effects of education on marriage entry depend on local housing prices. Specifically, higher education is associated with larger probability of entering marriage when the housing prices are relatively high; in contrast, education has a marriage-delaying effect in the cities with relatively low housing prices. Taken together, these results suggest the importance of considering the determinants of marriage within a broader changing social context.

於嘉 谢宇

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