Process of Ruling China by Law： The organizational ecology perspective on legal education from 1949 to 2012

建国以来，中国的法学教育机构在发展速度上有着极大波动，但鲜有系统数据和理论框架来分析这一变化轨迹背后的动力机制。笔者收集了64年中，本科法学教育组织的生命史数据，引入组织生态学的理论视角来探讨影响法学教育发展速度的因素。基于负二项回归模型的统计结果，本文指出：首先，法学教育组织的成立率与这一组织种群的密度呈钟形曲线关系，种群规模的变化显著影响组织的成立率；其次,在考虑种群演变的动力机制后，组织环境的容纳能力对法学教育机构的成立率并无显著彩响，这说明群体层面的组织过程可能是连接经济发展与法学教育扩张的重要因素；最后，制度环境的变化显著影响法学教育组织的成立率，法律的权威性与合法性是该环境中的关键力量。

The speed of development of legal education in China fluctuated greatly since the founding of PRC. However， these fluctuations and the underlying causal mechanisms have not been documented by systematic data or analyzed by theoretical frameworks. By collecting life histories of Chinese legal education organizations during the past 64 years， the author investigates factors that shaped the diffusion of legal education within the frame of organizational ecology. Based on results of negative binomial regression， this article argues： First， there is an inverted U-shape relationship between the organizational founding rate and the population density of legal education organizations. Changes in the scale of organizational population significantly influence the founding of new legal education organizations. Second， after taking account of the dynamics of population， the capacity of organizational environment does not impose significant effect on the founding rate， which implies that organizational process at the level of population might be the important factor linking economic prosperity and legal-education expansion. Third， transformation of institutional environment plays an indispensable role in founding process of legal-education organizations by changing legitimacy and authority of the law in China.

刘子曦

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