本文以风险社会的制度主义视角，从失业风险和收入风险两个维度衡量就业风险，构建数字时代就业风险分配的理论模型并进行实证研究。研究发现，数字时代影响就业风险存在两种路径：一是数字技术系统通过创造就业和扩大竞争，促使失业风险向收入风险转化；二是在制度系统路径中，人力资本、政治资本和社会资本分别作为市场机制、组织体制机制与关系机制产生相异的分配效应，三者均能降低失业风险，政治资本和社会资本降低收入风险，而人力资本扩大收入风险。本研究进一步显示，数字技术重构了制度路径的作用空间。随着数字技术的发展，风险分配的制度性作用空间下降，使得失业风险趋于收敛，而收入风险加剧分化。

Drawing on the perspective of institutionalism in the risk society, this paper evaluates employment risks from the dimensions of unemployment risk and income risk and constructs a theoretical model of the distribution of employment risks in the digital era to conduct empirical research. The study reveals two pathways by which the digital age affects employment risks. First, the digital technology system contributes to the transformation of unemployment risk to income risk by creating employment and expanding market competition. Second, in the institutional system pathway, human capital, political capital, and social capital-representing the market mechanism, the institutional mechanism, and the guanxi mechanism respectively - have distinct distributional effects on employment risks. All three reduce the unemployment risk; political and social capital reduce income risk, while human capital increases income risk. Furthermore, the study finds that the digital technology reconstructs the role of the institutional system pathways. As the digital economy grows, the influence of the institutional system of risk distribution diminishes, resulting in the convergence of unemployment risk and the increasing differentiation of income risk.

本文为国家社会科学基金重大项目“新形势下我国面临的主要就业风险及多维治理研究”（21&ZD181）的阶段性成果。

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